The Obesity Moonshot: A National Call to Action

Obesity Is Not an Individual Failure—It Is a Systemic One

America’s obesity crisis is not new, but its scale is unprecedented. More than 42 percent of U.S. adults are now classified as obese—nearly double the rate of 1980. Childhood obesity has tripled since the 1970s, and today, 40 percent of adolescents are overweight or obese, with 30 percent prediabetic.

The costs are staggering. Obesity-related medical expenses exceed $173 billion per year. The economic burden—lost productivity, disability, and the strain on federal programs—is projected to reach $9 trillion over the next decade. These numbers, however, do not capture the generational health consequences. A child born today is more likely than not to develop obesity, facing a lifetime of higher disease risk, reduced life expectancy, and diminished quality of life.

For decades, the dominant narrative has framed obesity as a matter of personal responsibility, placing blame on individuals while ignoring the structural factors that drive this epidemic. The reality is more complex. Ultra-processed foods now make up 73 percent of the U.S. food supply. The environments where people live and work often dictate their access to healthy food and opportunities for movement. The healthcare system, while equipped to treat diabetes, heart disease, and cancer, has long failed to prioritize preventing these conditions by addressing obesity at its root.

We do not lack awareness. What we lack is the will to act at scale.

The Obesity Moonshot is a national initiative that reframes obesity as a policy problem, a social  problem, and an economic problem—one that demands an ambitious, coordinated response. The goal is to cut obesity rates in half by 2035, using the same level of urgency and investment that the U.S. has applied to other public health crises.

Why Now? The Case for a National Strategy

The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission, launched to confront rising rates of chronic disease, has made it clear: America is at an inflection point. Their findings underscore the urgency of addressing obesity, particularly among children:

• In 2022, nearly 41 percent of U.S. children had at least one chronic disease.
• Obesity rates among children and adolescents have soared, with severe obesity rising fastest.
• The U.S. food environment is a major driver of this crisis, with ultra-processed foods dominating grocery store shelves and school meal programs.

The commission has called for an immediate shift in how the nation approaches childhood chronic disease. The Obesity Moonshot aligns directly with these priorities, providing a roadmap for tackling obesity at the systemic level—through policy, technology, and public health intervention.

At the same time, the FDA is advancing front-of-package food labeling to increase transparency around nutrition. Advances in real-world data and AI are making it possible to predict obesity risk early and deliver personalized interventions at scale. New treatments are emerging, but access remains limited and uneven.

The pieces are in place. But without a cohesive national strategy, these efforts will remain fragmented.

The Obesity Moonshot provides the framework for turning momentum into lasting change.

The Moonshot Framework: Ambition, Innovation, and Impact

Ambition: Defining the National Goals

For the U.S. to meaningfully reduce obesity, we must set clear, measurable objectives:

• Cut adult obesity rates from 42 percent to 21 percent by 2035.
• Reduce childhood obesity prevalence by 50 percent, preventing another generation from being locked into chronic disease.
• Expand access to obesity care, ensuring that 90 percent of Americans at risk can receive treatment, including behavioral and medical interventions.
• Reduce obesity-related healthcare costs by $50 billion annually by shifting toward prevention.
• Cut national consumption of ultra-processed foods by 25 percent within five years, using regulatory measures and industry reform.

These are ambitious targets, but they are achievable with the right policies and investment.

Innovation: Using AI, Real-World Data, and Policy Reform

The next decade presents a unique opportunity to harness technology and data to reshape obesity prevention and treatment.

• AI-powered predictive analytics can identify at-risk populations early and recommend interventions tailored to individual and community needs.
• Real-world data about health, diet, exercise, and the food supply can provide continuous monitoring and policy feedback, allowing for data-driven course correction.
• Food policy reform, including clearer labeling, transparency in ingredient sourcing, and industry incentives for reformulation, will shift incentives toward healthier choices.

Impact: Creating Systemic Change That Lasts

The success of the Obesity Moonshot will depend on strong federal leadership and cross-sector collaboration. Key elements of the initiative include:

• A National Public Health Task Force, ensuring coordination across federal agencies, states, and private sector partners.
• An annual White House Obesity Moonshot Summit, tracking progress and maintaining high-level accountability.
• A Federal Obesity Innovation Hub, accelerating research, funding, and regulatory efforts.
• A National Year of American Health, shifting the cultural conversation around prevention and wellness.

These efforts must not be symbolic. They must be institutionalized within federal policy, ensuring obesity remains a long-term national priority.

The Cost of Inaction

The case for acting now is not just moral—it is economic.

Obesity-related absenteeism alone costs $3.38 billion to $6.38 billion annually. Over the next decade, obesity’s financial toll on the U.S. economy will exceed $9 trillion, driven by rising healthcare expenditures and workforce losses.

Yet despite these staggering costs, obesity remains underfunded as a public health priority. Federal spending is disproportionately allocated toward treating the consequences of obesity, rather than preventing it.

What Success Looks Like

The Obesity Moonshot is not a quick fix. It is a long-term commitment to reshaping the systems that have driven this epidemic. The impact of this effort will be measured not just in statistics, but in the health and longevity of future generations.

By 2035, success will mean:

• A reversal in the trajectory of childhood obesity.
• A healthcare system that prioritizes prevention, not just disease management.
• A food industry that aligns with public health goals, not just profit margins.
• A federal policy framework that supports health equity, ensuring all communities have access to nutritious food, safe environments, and quality care.

The Time for Action Is Now

The U.S. has confronted major public health crises before and mobilized at scale to solve them. From smoking cessation campaigns to the fight against HIV/AIDS, sustained investment, regulatory action, and public-private partnerships have turned once-daunting challenges into measurable progress.

Obesity demands the same level of commitment.

The Obesity Moonshot is an opportunity to move beyond incremental solutions and fundamentally reshape America’s approach to public health. But success will require leadership, funding, and urgency.

ICA is committed to this effort, using AI, data science, and regulatory expertise to help federal agencies move from studying the problem to solving it.

Obesity is a national crisis. The solutions exist. The question is whether we will act.

The Obesity Moonshot is our opportunity to do so.